The drought situation in Kenya

The 2022 Short Rains Season Assessment Report paints a grave picture. Kenya has now experienced five successive below-average rainfall seasons stretching back as far as the October to December short rains of 2021. This has resulted in significant negative impacts on household food security. An estimated 6 million people in 32 counties are currently categorised under various levels of acute food insecurity with urgent interventions being required to contain the situation. The 2022 short rains were 1 to 3 dekads late across the south-eastern and localised parts of the northeast, and north-western parts of the country. However, the onset was normal in western and south-western Kenya and localised parts of the country. The report amplifies the fact that the rains were poorly distributed in space and time and were below average across most of the country, ranging from 75 percent of normal and below, as well as near average ranging between 76 – 125 percent in western, central, and parts of the southeast and northwest Kenya. However, across the Rift Valley, the rains were above average, ranging from 126 – 150 percent.

The report further highlighted that the impact of the below average rainfall seasons has been felt more in the arid and semi-arid (ASAL) counties, whose population is generally the most food insecure, given their high levels of poverty, high vulnerability to shocks and hazards, aridity, as well as rainfall variability. The IGAD Climatic Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), a designated Regional Climate Centre by the World Meteorological Organisation also warned of below-normal rainfall in most parts of the greater Horn of Africa during the March to May 2023 long rains season. The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) also made predictions alluding to near-average to below-average rainfall. This would therefore infer that Kenya will likely experience its sixth consecutive season of below-average rainfall, further exacerbating an already deteriorating food security situation in the country.

The 2022 Short Rains Season Assessment Report also states that maize prices across most markets in the country continued rising atypically through December 2022. These unseasonal price trends were attributed to the below-average harvests in the country and rising prices in the regional surplus-producing countries of Uganda, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, national maize production is expected to be about 35.4 million 90-kilogram bags, equivalent to 3.19 million metric tonnes (MMT) equivalent to 10 – 15 percent below the five-year average attributed to below-average rains and high prices of fertilisers and fuel that constrained cropping activities resulting in below average cropping area achieved and below-average production.